SATURDAY,  AUGUST 16,  2008

TRACKERS

Posted at 8:11 p.m. ET

Both trackers for Saturday are now out.  Gallup published quite late.

Both Rasmussen and Gallup show Obama up one point.  Yesterday, Gallup had the race tied, and Ras showed Obama up two, for an average one-point lead.  So, nothing has changed.

And that's bad news for Senator Obama.  Here he is, one week before the Democratic convention, in a Democratic year, and all he can manage is a one-point, statistically insignificant lead.  And...Obama generally polls better than he delivers. 

They'd better get the dearly departed ready to vote in Chicago, because Obama's going to need them. 

If these results continue through next week, there could be some stirrings at the Dem convention.  However, It's likely that Obama will announce his v.p. choice this week, and that may give him a bounce of a few points to ward off the most aggressive of the sharks. 

But this is not where the Democrats wanted to be.

August 16, 2008.      Permalink          

WHOOPS

Posted at 7:58 p.m. ET

Eagle-eyed reader Gregory Koster caught an interesting contradiction from Senator Obaama, dealing with the senator's office.  Of course, we've seen Obama flip-flop so much during this campaign that this shouldn't shock you.  But it should amuse you:

Consider this, from the AP, reporting on the offices of the presidential candidates: 

Obama's office feels more like a gallery of modern art: precisely placed objects, sparsely adorned surfaces, clean lines, choreographed displays.

And...

Obama's desktop, once used by former Illinois Sen. Paul Simon, is a testament to discipline.

Now, consider this, from the January 15th Democratic debate, moderated by Tim Russert: 

RUSSERT: You said each of you have strengths and weaknesses. I want to ask each of you quickly, your greatest strength, your greatest weakness.

OBAMA: My greatest strength, I think is the ability to bring people together from different perspectives to get them to recognize what they have in common and to move people in a different direction. And as I indicated before, my greatest weakness, I think, is when it comes to — I’ll give you a very good example:  I ask my staff members not to hand me a paper until two seconds before I need it because I will lose it. You know, the —- you know…
(LAUGHTER)
And my desk and my office doesn’t look good. I’ve got to have somebody around me who is keeping track of that stuff.  And that’s not trivial; I need to have good people in place who can make sure that systems run.

Hmm.  May sound like a trivial contradiction, but it isn't.  If Obama's desk is a "testament to discipline," why would he describe it as a kind of disaster area?  Maybe he was trying to sound more "human."  Or maybe there's a casualness about the truth that comes naturally to Senator Obama, something, very frankly, that I think we've seen all along. 

Reminds me of those people who get caught padding resumés.

August 16, 2008.      Permalink          

DANGER

Posted at 8:28 a.m. ET

The last week reminded us of the complex threats we face.  A resurgent and aggressive Russia now joins Islamic fundamentalism on the danger list.  Add to that the rise of China, and the fact that we really don't know which way that totalitarian state will go.

One of the great threats to this country is that someone will use a single nuclear weapon against us, possibly launched in such a way that the owner of the weapon cannot be traced.  Clifford D. May, president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, presents us with a chilling, entirely plausible scenario: 

If you don’t live in Washington, New York, or another big city, you may think: “Even if the terrorists do strike again on American soil, my hometown and my family probably aren’t in danger.” Think again.

In 2001 the U.S. government established a commission to “assess the threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack.” The commission recently reported to Congress that if a nuclear warhead were to be detonated at high altitude over the American mainland the blast would produce an EMP — a shockwave so powerful that it would “cripple military and civilian communications, power, transportation, water, food, and other infrastructure.”

Lights would go out. Telecommunications would fail. Computers would crash. Bank accounts would disappear. The stock market would cease operation. Refrigerated food warehouse would shut down. Sanitation and emergency services would be crippled.

Before long, millions of Americans would, as the Wall Street Journal flatly phrased it, “die of starvation or want of medical care.” It would require months or even years for America to climb out of the pre-industrial hole into which it had been flung.

Who might do such a thing?

Any number of terrorists groups would be proud to carry out such an attack. But, as the EMP commission also reported, only Iran (1) is attempting to develop nuclear weapons; (2) has recently conducted multiple missile tests of its nuclear-capable Shahab-3 missiles; (3) has done so from cargo ships in the Caspian Sea; and (4) also has detonated those missiles at high altitude. What’s more, the CIA has translated Iranian military journals in which EMP attacks against the U.S. are explicitly discussed.

Hmm.  We certainly have a sense of urgency about that, don't we?

So what can be done? It would help if Iran were to be prevented — by whatever means — from acquiring nuclear weapons. Failing that, the EMP threat surely adds to the arguments in favor of missile defense.

It is not impossible for the U.S. to have a system in place that would destroy missiles after launch and before they reach their targets. Critics say we don’t yet have the technology to guarantee that missile defense would work. But if the choice is between a 70-percent chance of stopping a nuclear-tipped missile and a 0-percent chance, which would you prefer?

Finally...

In 1983, Islamist terrorists used a truck and explosives to slaughter 241 U.S. Marines in their barracks in Beirut. In 1993, Islamists terrorists used a truck and explosives in an attempt to bring down the World Trade Center in New York.

The terrorists learned from those experiences — America’s political leaders did not. They failed to imagine or prepare for what the terrorists might do next — what the terrorists did do on September 11, 2001.

Given this history, you might think we would never make such a mistake again. But Sen. Barack Obama has said that, if he is elected president, he will cut off all missile-defense funding. Think of that what you will.

That could be a solid issue for McCain, if only he'd learn how to exploit it.  Obama's stand on missile defense is reckless, McCain's is statesmanlike.  The American people, now frightened by a world unraveling, will not think well of someone who wants to shut down missile-defense, regardless of the threats we face.

August 16, 2008.      Permalink          

LEGACY

Posted at 7:22 a.m. ET

James Zumwalt is the son of the late chief of naval operations, the well-remembered Admiral Elmo Zumwalt.  James Zumwalt himself is a retired Marine officer. 

Now he writes of sending his own son off to war.  This is a superb article, and I recommend it to you. 

For three years, I knew this day would come. I thought I would be prepared. Coming from a family whose proud military heritage dates to this country's founding, and having served in the Marines for a quarter-century and lost a brother to war-related causes, I felt ready for any challenge military life might bring.

I was not.

But he was far better prepared than others.

For generations, my family has sent sons off to war...

...Military service must be in our DNA. Even so, it is very difficult for a father to watch a son go off to war.

My son, who was commissioned in the Navy in 2005, chose an extremely dangerous specialty -- explosive ordnance disposal. EOD is a cadre of quiet professionals working with a wide range of explosive material, from small conventional bombs, such as improvised explosive devices, to nuclear warheads.

And...

Given the increasing demand for EOD specialists, I knew the time would come when James would follow in footsteps of many in our family. He, too, would answer his country's call in a faraway land.

And...

What does a father tell a son going off to war? In addition to some of my own father's counsel to me, I felt compelled to share advice much more difficult to convey. It was advice my father never needed to share with me, or, for that matter, his father with him -- because what had to be said to my son had not been an issue in America's previous wars.

What I told James related to the nature of the enemy and the evil we are fighting today. I had to counsel him that we are fighting an enemy unequaled in its brutality and barbarity; that no American soldier taken captive by this enemy has returned alive; that once their remains were found, their condition attested to the terrible price these soldiers ultimately paid; that they were victims of sadistic torture, mutilation and decapitation. I had to counsel him that, if he is faced with capture by this enemy, surrender is not an option.

I'd like to send that last paragraph to every person who's signed up to work for Obama.  I'd like to send it to the editors of The New York Times.

I shared one other thought with James. Having lost a grandfather, father and brother, I had come to believe all my heroes were gone. But I was wrong about this, too. In bidding my son farewell as he goes off to war, I realized I have been blessed with yet another hero.

And there are still, in America, families like that - who understand that with rights come responsibilities.  The question is whether we will have a government that is as good as those families, and as resolute.  The evidence is very mixed.

August 16, 2008.      Permalink